(Repeats story published on April 2)
* Feb trade due at 0700 GMT on April 6, seen in surplus
* CPI seen up a touch, but decline to continue
* Industrial output likely down 19 pct in February
By Mirka Krufova
PRAGUE (Reuters) - Czech industry likely remained weak in
February and inflation was probably steady at the lower end of
the central bank's target in March, but the data releases may
show some stabilisation, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
The median forecast for industrial output showed a 19
percent annual drop in February, following a sharp 23.3 percent
fall to start the year.
Foreign trade was expected to show a 5 billion crown ($248.1
million) surplus after a 3.5 billion crown surplus in January,
although the month showed a record plunge in exports.
"Exports and industrial data will likely be the most
important, and it will be interesting to see if there is some
stabilisation now," said Jan Vejmelek, head of economic and
strategy research for Komercni Banka.
"However it will still be too early to draw any strong
conclusions," he added.
The Czech economy, like neighbouring economies, has been
punished by the slowdown in demand for its cars, automotive
parts and electronics in the recession-hit euro zone.
The country's largest exporter, Volkswagen <VOWG.DE> unit
Skoda Auto, noted an uptick for orders starting in February,
mainly from Germany, where a scrap subsidy on new car purchases
was put in place.
Last month the carmaker went back to a five-day working week
after cutting back working time since last autumn.
Gross domestic product fell 0.9 percent on a
quarter-to-quarter basis in final months of 2008, and analysts
expect a further contraction in the first quarter.
On Wednesday, the Czech Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
slowed its decline in March, with the headline figure inching up
for only the second time in a year, and some analysts put this
down to the car scrap subsidy abroad.
"The production expectation in manufacturing of motor
vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers improved substantially in
March," said Jaromir Sindel, chief economist for the Czech
Republic at Citibank.
Analysts also expected the inflation rate to be up an annual
2.1 percent in March, rising a touch from 2 percent the previous
month.
The central bank targets 2-4 percent annual inflation, and
analysts and the bank's board have said inflation could approach
zero later in the year.
The central bank has cut 200 basis points since August to
bring interest rates to a historic low of 1.75 percent, but last
week held borrowing costs steady partly due to uncertainty over
the weakening crown currency.
The crown <EURCZK=> has lost 15 percent since a record high
seen last July, but has outperformed regional peers like
Hungary's forint and Poland's zloty with only a 0.3 percent loss
this year.
However, most analysts see further crown weakening by the
middle part of the year. "The weaker crown and hikes in tobacco
prices are likely to limit stronger disinflation," Citibank's
Sindel said.
For a TABLE with poll results, click on []
(Writing by Jason Hovet; Editing by Andy Bruce)
