* U.S. weekly data to show rise in U.S. crude stocks
* U.S. retail sales fell 1.1 percent in March
* U.S. EIA lowers 2009 world oil demand forecast
(Updates prices, adds quotes, changes dateline previous
LONDON)
NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - Oil erased an earlier gain
to trade near $50 a barrel on Tuesday after weak U.S. economic
data refocused attention on falling global oil demand and
forecasts for rising U.S. supplies.
U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 1.1 percent in March,
as motor vehicle purchases declined, indicating subdued
consumer spending amid rising unemployment. []
In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration
(EIA) lowered its 2009 world oil demand forecast.
[]
"The latest EIA estimate of global and U.S. oil demand is
not yet positive and denote that weak demand is still out
there," said Kyle Cooper, director of research at IAF Advisors
in Houston.
"Combined with the U.S. data showing an unexpected fall in
retail sales in March, the latest statistics have taken a
little luster off crude oil futures."
U.S. crude <CLc1> fell 15 cents to $49.90 a barrel at 1630
GMT. ICE Brent crude <LCOc1> was up 22 cents to $52.36.
Oil fell more than 4 percent on Monday after the
International Energy Agency, adviser to 28 industrialized
countries on energy policy, sharply cut its world oil demand
forecast for 2009. []
The EIA also lowered its world oil demand forecast in a
monthly report on Tuesday, but trimmed its estimate by 180,000
barrels per day, a less severe reduction than the IEA.
OPEC, the source of more than a third of the world's oil,
publishes its monthly view on Wednesday.
Still, analysts point to some positive indications for the
economic outlook and demand for commodities. Industrial output
growth in world No. 2 oil consumer China picked up to 8.3
percent in March.
"We have a number of signs that economic activity is
looking slightly stronger," said Francisco Blanch, head of
global commodities research at Banc of America
Securities-Merrill Lynch. "Probably the worst is behind us."
U.S. INVENTORIES
In addition to the forecasts for global supply and demand,
traders will also focus on the latest snapshot of supply in top
consumer the United States.
U.S. crude oil supplies rose for the sixth consecutive time
last week as imports rebounded, and that could have lifted
inventories to the highest in almost 19 years, a Reuters poll
of analysts showed on Monday. []
The poll of eight analysts showed an average forecast for a
2.2 million-barrel increase in crude inventories.
Industry group the American Petroleum Institute issues its
inventory report later on Tuesday. The EIA releases its own
data on Wednesday.
Oil has recovered to a $47-$54-range for the past four
weeks from a low of $32.40 in December. It is still down by
almost $100 from a record high above $147 last July.
(Reporting by Alex Lawler and Barbara Lewis in London and
Gene Ramos and Timothy Gardner in New York; Editing by
Marguerita Choy)
