* Wall St. volatile, after global stock gains aided oil
* China CenBank advisor sees slower growth, weighs on oil
* Coming up: CFTC trader positions on Friday
(Recasts, updates prices, market activity, moves dateline
from previous LONDON)
By Robert Gibbons
NEW YORK, June 18 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil prices edged
up in choppy trading on Friday, wavering along with U.S. equity
markets while traders considered the danger of slowing Chinese
demand versus longer-term deepwater supply risks.
"The 200-day moving average, $76.83 is still acting as a
magnet. The market has had nice ride and we're consolidating
now before the next big move," said Stephen Schork, president
at the Schork Group in Villanova, Pennsylvania.
At 12:37 p.m. EDT (1637 GMT), U.S. crude futures for July
<CLc1> rose 8 cents per barrel at $76.87 a barrel, with prices
still trading on either side of their 200-day moving average.
(For a graphic see: http://link.reuters.com/puq72m)
The front-month North Sea Brent futures <LCOc1> contract,
now August, was down 44 cents at $78.24 a barrel, having traded
as low as $77.25 earlier.
Front-end U.S. prices held firmer relative to products and
longer-dated futures reversing Thursday's trend. On Thursday
products surged on refinery glitches and signs of improving
demand .
U.S. stocks shed early gains but were still set for
back-to-back weekly gains as investors braced for volatility
ahead of the expiration of stock options. [] World stocks
rose a ninth straight session. []
Oil prices earlier fell as low as $75.56 a barrel after a
central bank adviser in China said growth is expected to slow
in the second half of 2010 and double-digit growth for the full
year is unlikely. []
That news knocked Shanghai stock markets -- which have
often influenced sentiment in China-dependant commodities like
oil and metals, although Hong Kong shares ended higher and
posted their best week since April. []
The concerns about China came after U.S. data showing
weekly jobless claims increased and factory activity growth in
the Mid-Atlantic braked to its slowest pace in 10 months,
raising concerns that an anemic economic recovery was
faltering. []
For a graphic see;http://link.reuters.com/fyf82m
LONGER-TERM RISKS
Oil markets remain transfixed on the oil spill in the Gulf
of Mexico, which could limit growth in deepwater oil supplies
if tougher new regulations that increase costs are imposed.
Other major producers have not shown any inclination to
follow the U.S. six-month ban on further drilling in the deep
Gulf seas, but analysts still expect some toll on supply, a
factor that has helped support far-forward oil prices.
Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Sieminski said the combination
of the moratorium, tightened drilling regulations and longer
permitting time-frames could defer deepwater Gulf of Mexico oil
production by nearly 50,000 bpd in 2010 and 200,000 bpd in
2011.
"In addition we believe it also raises the long-run
equilibrium price of oil by as much as $5 per barrel,"
Sieminski wrote in a note to commodity clients on Friday.
The International Energy Agency's Executive Director, Nobuo
Tanaka on Friday said the IEA estimates global offshore oil
output could be reduced 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day by
2015 if there is an extended global moratorium on new drilling
similar to that in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. []
But Tanaka also cautioned the downside risk to the global
economic recovery may prompt IEA to revise lower its demand
growth forecast.
Prices of long-dated WTI, including contracts for delivery
in December 2018, the farthest out, have remained fairly steady
around $95 since BP's Deepwater Horizon explosion on April 20.
(Reporting by Robert Gibbons; Editing by Sofina Mirza-Reid)
