* U.S. weekly data to show rise in U.S. crude stocks
* U.S. retail sales fell 1.1 percent in March
* U.S. EIA lowers 2009 world oil demand forecast
(Recasts, adds settlement prices, expanded U.S. crude
stocks poll)
By Timothy Gardner
NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - Oil slipped under $50 a
barrel on Tuesday on forecasts for softer 2009 global petroleum
demand and for a weekly build in U.S. crude supplies.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered
its 2009 world oil demand forecast by 180,000 barrels per day.
to just over 84 million bpd. []
In addition, the government reported U.S. retail sales
unexpectedly fell 1.1 percent in March, as motor vehicle
purchases declined, indicating subdued consumer spending amid
rising unemployment. []
"The latest EIA estimate of global and U.S. oil demand is
not yet positive and denote that weak demand is still out
there," said Kyle Cooper, director of research at IAF Advisors
in Houston.
"Combined with the U.S. data showing an unexpected fall in
retail sales in March, the latest statistics have taken a
little luster off crude oil futures."
U.S. crude <CLc1> fell 64 cents, or nearly 1.3 percent, to
settle at $49.41 a barrel. ICE Brent crude <LCOc1> fell 18
cents to $51.96.
Oil fell more than 4 percent on Monday after the
International Energy Agency, adviser to 28 industrialized
countries on energy policy, cut its world oil demand forecast
for 2009. That outlook called for even weaker global demand
than Tuesday's U.S. forecast. []
OPEC, the source of more than a third of the world's oil,
publishes its monthly view on Wednesday.
Still, analysts point to some positive indications for the
economic outlook and demand for commodities. Industrial output
growth in world No. 2 oil consumer China picked up to 8.3
percent in March.
"We have a number of signs that economic activity is
looking slightly stronger," said Francisco Blanch, head of
global commodities research at Banc of America
Securities-Merrill Lynch. "Probably the worst is behind us."
U.S. INVENTORIES
In addition to the forecasts for global supply and demand,
traders will also focus on the latest snapshot of supply in top
consumer the United States.
U.S. crude oil supplies rose for the sixth consecutive time
last week as imports rebounded, and that could have lifted
inventories to the highest in almost 19 years, an expanded
Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday. []
The poll of 14 analysts showed an average forecast for a
1.9 million-barrel increase in crude inventories.
Industry group the American Petroleum Institute issues its
inventory report later on Tuesday. The EIA releases its own
data on Wednesday.
Oil has recovered to a range of $47 to $54 for the past
four weeks from a low of $32.40 in December. It is still down
by almost $100 from a record high above $147 last July.
(Reporting by Alex Lawler and Barbara Lewis in London and
Gene Ramos and Robert Gibbons in New York; Editing by
Marguerita Choy)
