By Jan Lopatka
BRATISLAVA, June 13 (Reuters) - Slovak voters' decision to
boot out Prime Minister Robert Fico's centre-left cabinet could
help to improve relations with neighbouring Hungary and restart
economic reforms that made the country an investor's darling.
Early results from Saturday's election showed four
opposition parties, including one ethnic Hungarian faction, won
a majority in the 150-seat parliament.
Here is what the result would mean for government-building
and policy:
HUNGARY TIES
- Any centre-right coalition would need to include at least
one of the two ethnic Hungarian factions, Most-Hid or SMK, the
latter of which results showed may not clear the 5 percent
hurdle required to get it into parliament.
The former is a more moderate and more likely partner for
the main Slovak centre-right parties.
- The inclusion of a Hungarian faction would surely lead to
an improvement in currently very tense ties with Hungary.
- The government would exclude the far-right Slovak National
Party, which has made Hungary-bashing a key part of its agenda.
Party leader Jan Slota said Slovaks would cry "tears of blood"
when they realised who they voted for.
- Any scope for an improvement in relations could be limited
by a tough approach by Viktor Orban, the new Hungarian prime
minister who has pushed through a law offering citizenship to
ethnic Hungarians abroad, sparking the latest row with Slovakia.
BUDGET AND ECONOMY
- The leading opposition force, the centre-right SDKU, is
the party that led Slovakia's liberal economic reforms in
1998-2006.
- The reforms included a flat tax rate, privatisation of the
country's banks and utilities, an improved business environment
and pension and health reforms that set Slovakia apart from
other central European countries in the eyes of investors.
- A new party that is a part of the potential coalition,
Freedom and Solidarity, was formed by Richard Sulik, an
economist who designed the flat tax system for SDKU.
- Analysts believe a centre-right coalition is best placed
to deal with the budget gap that the government plans at 5.5
percent of gross domestic product this year but it may overshoot
the target.
- "The general expectation is that fiscal consolidation
ranks higher with right-wing parties in terms of priority, hence
an agreement on necessary budgetary reforms should be achieved
more easily within a right-wing coalition," said Vladimir Vano,
senior analyst at Volksbank.
COALITION BUILDING
- By tradition, the president gives the right to form a
government to the strongest party, which is still Fico's SMER.
- If given the chance, Fico may try to offer good conditions
to lure one of the opposition parties into his camp. That seemed
to be a quite likely option until all five of the opposition
parties declared they would not work with Fico.
It still remains an outside possibility.
- Fico said at the end of the election campaign that it had
been waged unfairly, especially when a tape was released
supposedly of him talking about illegal financing in his party.
He has said the recording was fake. There is a risk that Fico
may challenge the election results.
- The fact that there will be four to five parties in
government lays the ground for difficult consensus building.
- The main centre-right parties were in a coalition together
in 2002-2006 that fell apart due to constant quarrels, leading
to an early election in 2006.
- The two Hungarian parties are rivals for the minority's
vote and would make a difficult couple in the administration.
- The previous centre-right administration that ruled in
2002-2006 earned a poor reputation for transparency. The Fico
administration did not fare any better, and the vote results
which sent two new parties into parliament, the SaS and
Most-Hid, showed there was high demand in society for a clean-up
of public procurement.
