* EIA report likely to confirm large jump in US crude
stocks
* OPEC to slash demand forecasts in monthly report due
later
(Updates with prices)
By Jennifer Tan
SINGAPORE, April 15 (Reuters) - Oil fell for a third day to
hover above $49 a barrel on Wednesday, hit by a large jump in
U.S. crude stocks and weak economic data that dented hopes of
demand recovery in the world's top energy user.
The market is waiting to see if the U.S. Energy Information
Administration's (EIA) weekly report, due later in the day,
confirms the higher-than-expected build in crude inventories
from the American Petroleum Institute.
By 0630 GMT, U.S. crude for May delivery <CLc1> was down 6
cents at $49.35 a barrel, after falling to $48.92 earlier, and
by nearly 1.3 percent overnight. ICE Brent crude <LCOc1> was
down 17 cents at $51.79 a barrel.
Oil prices have been stuck in a $47-$54-range for the past
four weeks, having recovered from a low of $32.40 in December.
They are still down almost $100 from a record high above $147
last July.
"Crude fell on the back of weaker-than-expected March
retail sales, which also dragged on equities, and the main
worry is still the large weekly increase in crude inventories,"
said Peter McGuire, the Managing Director of Commodity Warrants
Australia.
Industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) said on
Tuesday that U.S. domestic crude stocks had risen by 6.5
million barrels last week, much higher than a 1.9
million-barrel increase forecast in a Reuters poll. []
The EIA report, due at 1430 GMT, is likely to show that
U.S. crude oil supplies rose for the sixth consecutive week,
probably to the highest in almost 19 years as imports
rebounded, a Reuters poll of analysts showed. []
Collapsing demand has been the main driver of the builds.
In its monthly outlook released on Tuesday, the EIA cut its
2009 world oil demand forecast by 180,000 barrels per day to
just over 84 million bpd. []
This comes after the International Energy Agency (IEA)
slashed its world oil demand forecast for 2009 last Friday,
sending oil prices down by 4 percent on Monday. []
Oil and other markets have been lifted by some glimmers of
hope that the U.S. economy was turning around. But U.S. stocks
slumped overnight as surprisingly bearish retail sales figures
dimmed hopes the recession was abating.
The data, which showed that sales at U.S. retailers fell an
unexpected 1.1 percent in March after rising for two straight
months, sparked selling across the market. [] []
"The market will be watching for the early results of the
U.S. reporting season and the impact on equities -- there's a
very close correlation between oil and stock markets," said
Mark Pervan, a senior commodity strategist with ANZ Bank.
The dollar and yen rallied after the disappointing U.S.
retail sales data and investor caution about corporate earnings
boosted safe-haven flows into the two currencies. []
Traders will also be eyeing OPEC's report, in which it is
expected to slash oil demand forecasts. A more bearish view on
oil demand could bolster support for a further tightening in
supplies. Its last report saw demand dropping by 1.01 million
bpd in 2009. []
On the supply front, Saudi Arabia will trim oil supplies to
some of its Asian customers in May. []
Saudi Arabia has been largely responsible for OPEC's high
level of compliance -- estimated at around 80 percent -- with
agreements to cut output by a total of 4.2 million bpd since
September last year.
