* WHAT: April consumer prices, Q1 GDP growth
* WHEN: May 12 and 15, 0700 GMT
* Consumer prices seen rising 0.3 percent month-on-month,
putting year-on-year rate at 6.7 percent; first-quarter GDP
growth seen at 5.7 pct, down from 6.6 in Q4.
By Mirka Krufova and Martin Dokoupil
PRAGUE, April 30 (Reuters) - Czech inflation probably fell
further from nine-year highs in April but remained close to the
top of the central bank's forecast range, a Reuters poll showed
on Wednesday, supporting the case for stable interest rates.
The poll showed first quarter gross domestic product growth
slowing to 5.7 percent from 6.6 percent in the final three
months of 2007 as the economy cooled on lower domestic demand.
The poll of 14 analysts gave a median forecast for a 0.3
percent consumer price rise in April, which would reduce annual
inflation to 6.7 percent.
That would be a drop from 7.1 percent in the previous month
but still 1.4 percentage point above the midpoint of the central
bank's January forecast.
The central bank targets inflation within one percentage
point on either side of 3 percent. It expects price growth to
fall back within the preferred corridor by early next year as
the impact of one-off tax and regulated price hikes wanes.
Analysts said slowing inflation would support arguments for
policymakers to keep interest rates stable.
"Given the current uncertainty, the central bankers will
wait for June when either Germany's slowdown must be seen or
figures will confirm whether inflation is slowing or not," said
Jaromir Sindel, chief economist at Citibank in Prague.
The central bank has raised the key two-week repo rate by 2
percentage points to 3.75 percent since 2005, with the latest
hike coming in early February.
It is due to meet next on policy on May 7, ahead of the
April data.
The bank voted 6-1 to leave rates steady in March, warning
it saw unusually large risks in both directions, making future
rate decisions harder to predict than usual.
The upside risks have been higher-than-expected inflation in
recent months and a possible secondary impact of cost shocks on
other prices. Downside risks are the strong crown currency and
weaker growth in Europe.
Most analysts believe rates have peaked and the next move
will be down in early 2009, but some still expect the bank to
raise interest rates once more, possibly in June.
The crown briefly hit an all-time peak of 23.0 per euro
<EURCZK=> in a freak trade on April 14. It has since weakened to
more than 25.0 to the single currency.
The first growth estimate is due on May 15.
"The first quarter GDP release can bring a nice surprise,"
said David Marek, chief economist at Patria Finance, who expects
a 6 percent rise.
"Almost all the data released this year suggest the Czech
economy kept momentum at the beginning of this year despite euro
zone slowdown and appreciation of the exchange rate," he said.
Analysts expect full-year growth of 5.0 percent, above the
central bank's forecast of 4.1 percent.
The central bank will release new inflation and growth
forecasts after the May 7 policy meeting.
For a TABLE on forecasts, click on [] and
[]
(Editing by Gerrard Raven)
