INSTANT VIEW 2-Czech May retail sales above fcast

                                
 PRAGUE, July 7 (Reuters) - Czech retail sales rose by 3.1
percent year-on-year in May, above the 1.0 percent rise forecast
by analysts in a Reuters poll, Czech Statistic Bureau data
showed on Wednesday.
                                
 It was the second rise since October 2008, following 3.8
percent growth in March. Analysts said the main driver was car
sales but were cautious to express optimism due to signs of
slowing demand in western Europe, the main Czech export market.
                                
 Data also showed the Czech foreign trade posted a 12.3
billion crown ($653.2 million) surplus in May, marginally lower
than analyst forecasts in a Reuters poll.
                                
 Exports rose 24.4 percent year-on-year, and imports rose by
25.9 percent, the fastest pace for both this year.
**************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(change in percent)     May          April         May fcast
RETAIL SALES (y/y)     +3.1          -4.5           +1.0

FOREIGN TRADE
 (in bln CZK)           May          April         May fcast
 balance               12.34        15.17 (15.39)   14.0
(nominal y/y change in pct)
 exports               24.4         13.5  (13.0)    18.0
 imports               25.9         13.5  (12.9)    17.9

 Details of May retail sales data................[ID:nPRA005126]
 Details of May foreign trade data...............[ID:nPRA005127]
                                
 
RETAIL SALES
- The headline, unadjusted figure includes retail sales plus car
sales and repairs, as well as fuel sales.
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales including fuels and cars rose
by a real 0.4 percent month-on-month, and dropped 0.8 percent
year-on-year in May.
- Unadjusted car and car maintenance sales rose by a real 13.3
percent year-on-year, with car sales rising by 16.2 percent and
maintenance sales contracting by 0.4 percent.

  FOREIGN TRADE
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
rose 1.9 percent in May from April, while imports were up 1.9
percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports rose 29.6 percent and imports rose 31.2
percent year-on-year in May.
- The balance showed an annual improvement by 0.6 billion crowns
from May 2009.
- The improvement was mainly due a widening surplus in trade
with machinery and cars.
                                
 
                                
 COMMENTS
                                
 
                                
 PAVEL MERTIK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, RAIFFEISENBANK
                                
 "The driver (in retail sales) was car sales. Czechs began to
take advantage of the peaking discounts. We think that the the
May growth should be viewed (with caution). One swallow does not
spring make."
                                
 "An improvement in the labour market and the resulting
growth in consumer optimism will not fully show until the end of
the year."
                                
 
                                
 BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release             [ID:nLDE65T123]
- Slovak April trade figures                     [ID:nLDE64B0AX]
- May consumer inflation                         [ID:nLDE658063]
                                
                              [ID:nLDE6580EJ] [ID:nPRG004193]
- April industrial output                        [ID:nLDE6560H2]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[ID:nLDE65K1NV]
                                
                              [ID:nHJJ000030] [ID:nL71022443]

- For further details on May retail sales and foreign trade data
and other past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the
Czech Statistical Bureau's website:
                                
 http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo

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 (Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; editing by Michael Winfrey)