Nov 11 (Reuters) - Reuters has surveyed 31 emerging market strategists
for their views on when the newest members of the European Union are likely to
adopt the euro and when the EU may admit more new members.
Following is a summary of the results of the survey, taken October 29 to
November 11 .
For analysis of the results, double-click on [] [].
1. In what year do you expect the following countries, which are at various
stages on the road to euro adoption, to enter the exchange rate mechanism
(ERM-2)?
(not for countries already in ERM-2).
Median Mean Mode Maximum Minimum F'casts
Bulgaria 2012 2012 2012 2015 2010 21
Czech Republic 2012 2012 2011 2015 2010 28
Hungary 2012 2012 2011 2015 2010 27
Poland 2011 2011 2011 2013 2010 28
Romania 2013 2013 2013 2016 2011 24
2. In what year do you expect these countries to formally adopt the euro?
Median Mean Mode Maximum Minimum F'casts
Bulgaria 2014 2014 2014 2018 2012 22
Czech Republic 2015 2014 2015 2017 2012 28
Estonia 2012 2013 2012 2016 2010 20
Hungary 2014 2015 2014 2017 2013 27
Latvia 2014 2014 2014 2020 2011 20
Lithuania 2014 2014 2015 2020 2011 20
Poland 2014 2014 2013 2015 2012 28
Romania 2015 2016 2015 2020 2014 24
3. Which do you expect to revalue/devalue their currencies
in the next 12 months?
REVALUE DEVALUE NO CHANGE
Bulgaria 2 2 13
Czech Republic 19 2 1
Estonia 0 4 13
Hungary 11 4 6
Latvia 0 7 10
Lithuania 0 6 11
Poland 17 2 3
Romania 8 5 5
4. What are the biggest hurdles faced by EU countries on the road to euro
adoption: controlling inflation, controlling budget deficits, reducing public
debt, stabilising domestic currencies?
(Table shows count, some economists selected more than one)
Control Control budget Cut public Stabilise domestic
inflation deficits debt currencies
Bulgaria 12 6 1 5
Czech Republic 1 26 0 2
Estonia 4 19 0 5
Hungary 16 23 25 9
Latvia 6 19 6 13
Lithuania 7 19 2 7
Poland 9 26 8 4
Romania 18 20 2 11
5. What central parity rate do you expect the following currencies to be
set at versus the euro upon their entry to the Exchange Rate Mechanism?
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Bulgarian Lev 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.95 11
Czech Koruna 24.60 24.79 24.00 28.00 22.50 18
Hungarian Forint 265.00 266.78 280.00 300.00 240.00 15
Polish Zloty 3.91 3.91 4.00 4.50 3.40 16
Romanian Leu 3.75 3.85 4.80 4.80 3.00 11
6. In what year will these countries join the EU?
Median Mean Mode Max Min F'casts
Albania 2020 2018 2020 2020 2014 17
Bosnia 2020 2019 2020 2025 2013 18
Croatia 2012 2013 2012 2015 2010 20
Macedonia 2016 2016 2015 2020 2013 18
Montenegro 2015 2016 2015 2020 2013 17
Serbia 2016 2017 2015 2025 2012 18
Turkey 2020 2019 2020 2025 2014 14
Contributors:
4Cast; Banca Intesa AD Belgrade; Banco BPI; Bank of Cyprus;
Bankhaus Metzler; Bayern LB; BGZ; CA Cheuvreux; Ceska Sporitelna;
Citi; CSOB; Fitch Ratings; Helaba; IHS Global Insight;
ING Financial Markets; KBC Asset Management; Komercni banka;
Landesbank Berlin AG; Morgan Stanley; National Bank of Greece;
NIESR; Nomura International; Oppenheim Research; Patria Finance;
Raiffeisen Research; RBC; RBS; Scotiabank Group; Tera Stock Brokers; UniCredit;
WestLB.
(Compiled by Yati Hitmatsingka in Bangalore; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
