PRAGUE, Aug 31 (Reuters) - The leftist Czech Social
Democrats (CSSD) have expanded their lead over the main
right-wing Civic Democrats (ODS) six weeks before an early
election, a survey showed on Monday.
The poll by the STEM agency showed backing for the Social
Democrats rose to 29 percent from 28.2 percent two months ago,
while support for the right-wing Civic Democrats fell to 24.1
percent from 28.3 percent.
Recent polls from other agencies have shown the Social
Democrats in a small lead.
No party is expected to win an outright majority in the Oct.
9-10 election, but the survey put the Social Democrats in the
best position in terms of forming a post-election coalition.
The survey showed the party could either run a minority
cabinet backed in parliament by the far-left Communists, form a
coalition with two small parties, or a grand coalition with the
Civic Democrats.
None of the alternatives would be easy. The Communists are
considered untouchable by many Czechs due to their totalitarian
past.
Forming a cabinet with the small parties may prove difficult
because one of them, the new conservative TOP 09, refuses to
work with the current Social Democrat leadership.
A grand coalition has been mooted by some political analysts
as a good alternative for both parties who could jointly push
through unpopular reforms needed to cut the yawning budget gap
and face the economic downturn, but the parties have spoken
against the possibility.
The Czech Republic has had a non-partisan government headed
by Prime Minister Jan Fischer since the leftist parties toppled
a Civic Democrat-led coalition government in March.
The Social Democrats have been rejecting cuts in welfare and
any hikes in the sales tax on food and other basic goods, which
have been proposed by the interim government to cut the budget
gap next year. They instead plan to hike taxes for top earners
and companies, and raise welfare and pensions.
The Czech voting system is based on proportional
representation but divides the country into 14 voting districts.
This makes allocation of parliamentary seats difficult to
predict because small differences in support can lead to widely
different number of seats, especially for small parties.
Parties must win at least 5 percent of the national vote to
win seats in parliament.
DATE INSTITUTE ODS CSSD KSCM TOP09 KDU-CSL Greens
Aug 31/09 STEM 24.1 29.0 11.2 6.8 5.7 2.7
Aug 19/09 CVVM 31.0 33.0 13.5 9.5 5.0 3.0
June 25/09 CVVM 35.0 30.0 16.0 2.0 6.5 5.5
June 19/09 STEM 28.3 28.2 12.8 - 6.2 2.7
May 19/09 STEM 23.7 32.4 10.9 - 5.3 5.9
May 19/09 CVVM 29.0 38.0 15.0 - 7.0 6.5
April 15/09 CVVM 28.0 37.5 15.5 - 7.0 7.0
April 15/09 STEM 27.5 35.1 10.5 - 4.4 5.6
March 18/09 CVVM 31.5 36.0 16.0 - 5.0 7.0
March 17/09 STEM 27.8 35.3 11.0 - 6.0 5.3
Feb 18/09 CVVM 29.0 38.5 15.5 - 7.0 6.0
Feb 13/09 STEM 25.5 35.2 11.8 - 6.8 5.1
Jan 28/09 CVVM 29.0 41.0 14.0 - 5.5 7.0
Jan 16/09 STEM 22.5 37.7 9.9 - 6.5 5.8
Dec 19/08 STEM 23.5 38.4 11.4 - 5.4 6.3
Dec 17/08 CVVM 27.0 44.5 14.0 - 6.0 6.0
Nov 21/08 CVVM 27.5 43.0 11.5 - 6.5 8.0
Nov 18/08 STEM 21.1 37.7 9.6 - 5.6 5.6
Oct 30/08 STEM 21.4 33.3 12.0 - 6.1 7.1
Oct 29/08 CVVM 26.5 40.0 14.5 - 7.0 8.5
Sept 17/08 CVVM 29.0 34.0 16.0 - 7.5 10.0
Sept 16/08 STEM 22.3 32.6 11.8 - 5.9 8.4
----------------------------------------------------------------
June 2006 election 35.4 32.3 12.8 - 7.2 6.3
NOTE. The STEM poll was conducted between August 10 and
August 20 among 1,239 eligible Czech voters.
The parties are:
- Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - right-of-centre,
liberal-conservative
- The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) - leftist
- The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) - far left
- The new conservative party TOP 09
- Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party
(KDU-CSL) - centrist
- The Greens - environmentalists, centrist
Pollsters: The CVVM results are based on a model predicting
gains at the ballot box, excluding those not willing to vote and
undecided.
STEM results are direct voter preferences, and include
replies from all respondents including those not willing to
vote. Parties should thus win a larger than indicated share of
the vote at the election.
(Reporting by Mirka Krufova, editing by Jan Lopatka)
