(Repeats story published on April 29)
* WHAT: Czech industrial output, trade, inflation
* WHEN: Flash industry figures on April 30
* Output drop seen slowing but still in double digits
* For TABLE with complete forecasts, click on []
By Mirka Krufova and Jan Lopatka
PRAGUE (Reuters) - Germany's car scrap subsidy and a later
Easter eased the scale of a slump for Czech producers in March,
but output still dropped at a double-digit pace and the outlook
remains grim, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
The median estimate in a poll of 15 analysts showed March
industrial output falling by 14 percent, an improvement from a
23.4 percent decline in the previous month.
A flash estimate of output -- the first time the statistical
bureau will release the fast data -- is due out between 9 and 10
a.m. on Thursday, before the full report on May 12.
"We hope that March statistics will show less dramatic
declines in both exports and industrial output," said Radomir
Jac, chief analyst at Generali PPF Asset Management.
"Not only that March has benefited from positive calendar
effects this time, but there are indications that positive
impact of incentives for car purchases, introduced in several
European countries should be visible."
Germany and the UK are among those to introduce premiums
paid to motorists for buying new cars while dumping old models,
benefitting producers like Volkswagen's <VOWG.DE> Skoda Auto
unit, which is the Czech Republic's biggest company.
However, the central European country will still see a
decline in gross domestic product in all four quarters this
year, Jac said.
The Finance Ministry predicted a 2.3 percent economic drop
this year on Wednesday, but the International Monetary Fund has
forecast a 3.5 percent contraction. []
EXPORTS KEY
The Czechs have weathered the global financial sector crisis
well but they have been deeply hit by the consequent slump in
European demand.
Exports equal to about 70 percent of Czech exports, and are
a key source of growth, similar to the Hungarian economy.
Poland, the region's biggest country with nearly four times the
Czechs' 10.5 million population, has been more sheltered and
official forecasts still see minimal growth this year.
Analysts in the poll predicted Czech March foreign trade to
show a 7 billion crown surplus, a slight deterioration from an
8.7 billion surplus in the previous month. Foreign trade volumes
have suffered due to a drop in both imports and exports.
Inflation should resume a downward trend in April, scoring
2.0 percent year-on-year after a surprising pick-up to 2.3
percent in March, the poll showed.
"The pick-up in inflation in March was mainly attributable
to one-off effects," said Vojtech Benda, senior economist at ING
Wholesale Banking.
"We suspect the April CPI report will confirm the headline
inflation returning below 2 percent, driven by widening negative
output gap and private consumption likely declining. The plunge
in industrial prices seen in March signals the strengthening
disinflationary pressures in the economy."
The central bank has said inflation would drop close to zero
this year before gradually picking up again. The bank targets
inflation at 3 percent this year and 2 percent from next year
onwards.
(Editing by Patrick Graham)
