* Opposition has chance to topple Czech government
* Cabinet could stay on for months even if govt defeated
* Early election not ruled out
(Adds cancelled Yushchenko meeting, background)
By Jan Lopatka
PRAGUE, March 24 (Reuters) - Czech opposition Social
Democrats have their best chance yet on Tuesday of toppling
Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek's minority centre-right
administration, midway through the country's EU presidency.
Ousting the three-party cabinet in Tuesday's no-confidence
vote, made more likely by defections from Topolanek's camp,
would jeopardise policymaking in a severe economic downturn and
threaten efforts to ratify the EU's Lisbon treaty.
Even if forced out by an opposition victory, Topolanek's
team, long hampered by its weak standing in parliament, would
stay in power until politicians hammer out what to do next,
which could take weeks or months.
Topolanek plans to seek a new mandate from President Vaclav
Klaus if the cabinet falls, but did not rule out early polls.
"In case the government does not win ... tomorrow, and if it
is not possible to form a new cabinet without support from the
Communists, then the Civic Democrats clearly support the fastest
possible way toward an early election, as soon as the summer of
this year," Topolanek told reporters on Monday.
Social Democrat leader Jiri Paroubek said he wanted the
cabinet to stay on, even after resignation, until June to avoid
changing the team during the country's EU term.
He said a government of non-partisan experts should then
take over and lead the country toward an early election in the
autumn or next spring. Regular polls are due in mid-2010.
The lower house is due to start a session at 1300 GMT, with
a lengthy debate expected ahead of the actual vote. Topolanek
cancelled a meeting with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko,
scheduled for 1545 GMT.
EVEN CHANCES
Political analyst Jiri Pehe said he saw even chances for
both camps, but added that the key independent deputies may be
discouraged by the outlook for an early election which would cut
short their mandate.
The Social Democrats lead opinion polls but their margin
over the Civic Democrats has narrowed to 4.5 percentage points
in the latest survey released last week.
The Czech vote comes just days after Hungarian Prime
Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany said he would step down and after
governments fell in Iceland and Latvia under the strain of the
economic crisis.
While the Czech political turmoil is not as directly related
to the crisis, the economy has suffered from a slump in exports,
and figures out on Monday showed industrial output fell by 23.3
percent in January.
But the crown currency has recovered from a drop seen
earlier this year, banks have held strong, the public has been
calm and Czechs are not heavily exposed to foreign debt.
The cabinet has suffered instead from factional infighting
since it was appointed in January 2007.
(For a TAKE-A-LOOK on the Czech confidence vote, please
double-click on []
(Additional reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
