* Opposition has chance to topple Czech government
* Government could stay on for months even if defeated
* Early election not ruled out
(Adds quotes from opposition chief, analysts, currency)
By Jan Lopatka
PRAGUE, March 24 (Reuters) - Czech Prime Minister Mirek
Topolanek's minority centre-right administration faced a vote of
no confidence on Tuesday that could force it out of office and
undermine policymaking during the global economic downturn.
But the opposition Social Democrats said if the government
was defeated, it could stay on to complete the EU presidency,
which the Czech Republic holds until the end of June.
Analysts also noted the Czech Republic had been less
affected by the global financial crisis than some of its eastern
European neighbours, and despite the political turmoil the crown
currency held broadly steady after recovering from a drop
earlier this year.
The lower house parliament began a session at 1300 GMT, with
a lengthy debate expected ahead of the vote. Topolanek cancelled
a meeting with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko.
Even if forced out by an opposition victory, Topolanek's
team, long hampered by its weak standing in parliament, would
stay in power until politicians agree what to do next, which
could take weeks or months.
"This government can continue for some time as a government
in resignation, it can complete the Czech EU presidency or its
substantial part," opposition Social Democrat chief Jiri
Paroubek told a news conference.
A government of non-partisan experts could then be formed to
lead the country to early polls in the autumn or next spring, he
said. Regular polls are due in mid-2010.
Topolanek said on Monday he would seek a new mandate to form
a cabinet from President Vaclav Klaus if the government falls.
He said early polls should be held in the summer if there was no
agreement on a new government.
EVEN CHANCES
Political analyst Jiri Pehe said he saw even chances for
both camps, but added that independent deputies who had defected
from both sides might be discouraged by the prospect of an early
election which would cut short their mandate.
"By declaring willingness to go to early elections in the
summer, Prime Minister Topolanek said that he will cut their
mandate by a year," he said. "Now they will think twice."
The government has 96 votes, not all of them sure, in the
200-seat lower house, while the opposition has 97. The rest are
defectors from both sides. The opposition must find 101 votes to
topple the government.
The Social Democrats lead opinion polls but their margin
over Topolanek's Civic Democrats has narrowed to 4.5 percentage
points in the latest survey released last week.
The Social Democrats are promoting more tax-and-spend
policies and have rejected the government's reforms of the
health sector, but analysts said their plans would be limited by
their desire to join the euro zone soon.
They are also much more pro-EU integration and oppose U.S.
plans to build a missile defence radar in the Czech Republic.
The Czech vote comes just days after Hungarian Prime
Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany said he would step down and after
governments fell in Iceland and Latvia under the strain of the
economic crisis.
The Czech economy has suffered from a slump in exports, and
figures released on Monday showed industrial output fell by 23.3
percent in January.
But its banks have needed no bailouts, the public has been
calm and Czechs are not heavily exposed to foreign debt.
The crown traded at 27.05 to the euro on Tuesday, down 1.5
percent since the political crisis blew up but beating other
currencies in central Europe. It has gained 10 percent from this
year's low seen in mid-February.
(Additional reporting by Jana Mlcochova, editing by Myra
MacDonald))
