* For full poll data see <CEEFXPOLL01>
* Zloty seen gaining 8 pct vs euro in 12 months
* Forint seen firming 6 pct, crown 4 pct, leu 3 pct
By Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, July 8 (Reuters) - Central Europe's main
currencies are expected to firm up against the euro in the next
six to 12 months, although the European debt crisis remains a
threat, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Thursday.
Only the safe-haven Czech crown has escaped falls that have
brought down the region's currencies by as much as 5 percent
since April as concerns over Hungary and Romania's budgets and
debt have amplified the impact of global waves of risk aversion.
The consensus view of the 40 participants in the July 5-7
poll was for weaker gains in the region's currencies against the
euro over the next 12 months than they had forecast a month ago.
But the units are still expected to gain up to 8 percent by
July 2011, with Poland's zloty and the crown firming to above
2010 highs.
According to the median forecast in the poll, the zloty
<EURPLN=> is expected to strengthen 8 percent versus the euro
from Wednesday's close to 3.8, slightly weaker than the 3.75
median projection a month ago.
"Provided fiscal concerns over peripheral euro zone
countries do not escalate, the Polish currency may gain in the
autumn, as the data on economic activity in Poland will be
supportive and the Polish MPC (central bank) will start interest
rate hikes," said Radoslaw Cholewinski of Noble Bank in Warsaw.
Poland's robust economy is seen as having the strongest
recovery potential in Central Europe, but the zloty -- the
region's most liquid currency -- has shed 4 percent since April,
while Hungary's forint <EURHUF=> has lost 5 percent and
Romania's leu <EURRON=> has slipped 2.5 percent.
The crown, which has firmed slightly, is expected to
strengthen about another 4 percent in the next 12 months to
24.5, unchanged from the forecast a month ago, even though in
the next few months it is seen staying close to current levels.
"The crown proved resilient to debt-related turmoil and is
likely to remain the most stable currency in Central Europe,"
said Peter Poplawski, BGZ Bank analyst in Warsaw.
LOCAL RISKS STILL WATCHED
Hungary and Romania have announced spending cuts and tax
measures in recent weeks to soothe concerns they could overshoot
their budget deficit targets, threatening their aid programmes
from international lenders.
Analysts project that the forint will firm up about 6
percent in the next 12 months to 267 per euro, compared with a
262.85 forecast a month ago. The leu is expected to gain about 3
percent to 4.09, compared with a forecast of 4.07 last month.
The two countries have the highest interest rates among the
EU's emerging markets but their central banks have halted their
easing cycles due to market jitters in recent months and
region-wide concerns that inflationary pressure may rise.
While global markets may remain shaky and the recovery in
the region's main export markets fragile, local risks over
fiscal consolidation could keep Central European currencies
under pressure for months, analysts said.
"More detail is needed on the (Hungarian) government's
(economic) action plans and its budget goals for the upcoming
years," said Gyorgy Barta of CIB Bank in Budapest.
"The stronger Swiss franc <EURCHF=> puts the FX-indebted
private sector under pressure and creates a risk for the
financial sector. As some of these negative influences fade out,
however, we expect the forint to return to its long-term
appreciation path versus the euro," he added.
The franc's surge against the euro has boosted it to record
highs against the forint <CHFHUF=>, causing a painful rise in
repayments on Hungarian households' 4.3 trillion forint ($19.12
billion) Swiss franc debt. [] Poles have borrowed
128.8 billion zlotys ($39.56 billion) in Swiss franc.
The Swiss franc is seen remaining rangebound against the
euro in the next 12 months, according to Reuter's calculations
based on separate polls. []
But the euro <EUR=>, falls in which often trigger weakening
in Central European currencies, is expected to soften further
against the U.S. dollar in the next six months. []
For data please click on <CEEFXPOLL01>
Major currencies poll series and data <FOREXPOLL01>
(Reporting by Sandor Peto; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
