PRAGUE, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Czech retail sales fell by 4.9
percent year-on-year in November, a much bigger drop than
analysts' forecast, data showed on Wednesday.
It was the fourtheenth monthly decline in a row and evidence
of a continued second wave of the economic crisis, which has
been underscored by rising unemployment, stagnant wages and a
fall in household spending.
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KEY POINTS:
(change in percent) Nov Oct Nov forecast
RETAIL SALES (y/y) -4.9 -4.7 -1.0
(Click on [] for full table of Nov retail sales)
- The headline, unadjusted figure includes retail sales plus car
sales and repairs, as well as fuel sales.
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales including fuels and cars fell
by a real 2.9 percent month-on-month, while dropping 6.1 percent
year-on-year in November.
- Unadjusted car sales and maintenance fell by a real 11 percent
year-on-year, pulling down the overall figures.
- Unadjusted retail sales excluding cars sales and repair
dropped by 2.3 percent year-on-year.
COMMENTARY:
HELENA HORSKA, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE
"Considering that the Czech economy was hit by a strong
recession and some 200,000 people lost their jobs, the retail
sales have not been developing so badly.
"I'm afraid though that the decline in sales is not over. It
will continue as the number of jobless will rise during the
first half of the year. Moreover, wages will rise only seldom
and the purchasing power of Czech households will fall."
PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB
The November sales drop shows consumer demand remains very
subdued. This confirms the central bank was correct to lower its
main interest rate in December. Consumers' unwillingness to
spend is strong and it continues.
"Growing unemployment, subdued wages and an overall anxiety
over the next development of the financial situation will
continue to dampen consumption. I do not expect the central bank
to make more steps, it has done basically all it could have."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"It is a significantly negative surprise. I would say it was
due to the (economic) uncertainty that people delayed their
usual Christmas shopping for later, which means probably that
December will look better. Although November and December will
be below levels of 2008."
"I would not give much significance (to this number in terms
of monetary policy). That we would not have a demand-driven
inflation is something we had assumed."
MARKET REACTION:
Crown a touch weaker at 26.220 to the euro <EURCZK=> from
26.200 ahead of the data.
BACKGROUND:
- December consumer inflation [
[ID:nPRG003872]
- November preliminary industrial output []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.......[]
[] [] [] []
LINKS:
- For further details on November retail sales and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-slu
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Writing by Jason Hovet)
