(Corrects Czech PMI figure to 50.8, from 50.9)
* Polish December PMI flat from November at 52.4 points
* Czech December PMI up to 50.8, vs 50.6 in November
* Hungarian PMI, different methodology, up to 48.5, vs 47.7
By Michael Winfrey
PRAGUE, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Manufacturing in the European
Union's two biggest emerging economies continued a recovery in
December and the third, Hungary, inched closer to stabilisation,
data showed on Monday.
Industry struggled back to growth in Poland and the Czech
Republic in November, helped less by a rebound in demand than a
slight uptick over the comparison base from a year earlier, when
the economic crisis caused double-digit falls in production.
In December, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Poland
<PLPMI=ECI> stabilised at 52.4 points, above the neutral 50
point barrier that distinguishes growth from contraction, Markit
Economics said.
It also came above the 52.1 points forecast in a Reuters
poll. Czech PMI held in positive territory a second consecutive
month in December, creeping up to 50.8, from 50.6 in November.
Analysts said the data indicated a rise in new orders and
slower increases in unemployment across the region were helping
recovery take hold but persistent tight credit and wariness
among consumers would prevent a jump back to pre-crisis growth.
The data also corroborated industrial output figures
released last month for November, which showed Poland's rising
9.8 percent on an annual basis. Czech industry grew by 0.2
percent. Both were the first rises since September, 2008.
"There is not much of a breakthrough. It's in line with
earlier months, and is a gradual recovery," said Agata Urbanska,
an economist for emerging Europe at ING.
Hungary, which calculates PMI according to different
methodology, saw its index rise to 48.5 in December, below the
break-even 50 mark but higher than November's 47.7.
The Polish zloty <EURPLN=> added 0.4 percent in early
trading. It was followed by the Hungarian forint <EURHUF=> and
the Czech crown <EURCZK=>.
NEW ORDERS UP
On Monday, the world's top car-parts maker, German
industrial conglomerate Robert Bosch [], said it expected
sales in developed markets like the United States, Europe and
Japan to only claw back to pre-crisis levels in 2015 or 2016.
That could bode ill for the Czechs and Hungarians, who
depend heavily on exports of cars, consumer electronics, and
other manufacturing-heavy goods to Western Europe.
But there are signs of activity. Czech PMI was underpinned
by a fifth straight monthly increase in new orders, although at
a more modest rate than in previous months, the data showed.
Employment and purchasing of stocks were negative.
Analysts said fiscal tightening expected in 2010 and a
currency that outperformed its regional peers last year could
hamper industrial growth there.
By contrast, Poland's zloty has been slow to recover from a
30 percent drop at the height of the crisis, and its government
is not expected to tighten public finances ahead of an autumn
presidential election, which can help boost growth even if it
could prompt more severe cutbacks later.
Its internal market of 38 million people, who are striving
to bring their living standards up to the EU average, helped
make Poland the only EU state avoid economic contraction last
year and will give it a further boost in 2010.
Poland's December new orders remained at the highest level
since February 2008, while the employment index rose for the
first time since April 2008, suggesting better than previously
expected consumer demand in 2010.
"The Czech economy is being held back by the usual suspects,
which is still a fairly strong currency and slow export
recovery, when you compare it with Poland, which has more of a
competitive edge at this point the cycle," said Raffaella
Tenconi, chief economist at Wood & Co.
Analysts and officials are now revising upwards their growth
forecasts, with the market expecting Poland's economy to expand
by 2.4 percent in 2010.
(Reporting by Reuters bureaus; Editing by Toby Chopra)
