* Exit polls show centre-right parties significantly ahead
* Centre-right coalitions possible
(Writes through with exit polls, comments)
By Jana Mlcochova and Jason Hovet
PRAGUE, May 29 (Reuters) - Centre-right parties took a large
lead in the Czech parliamentary election and could form a
majority coalition government, an exit poll released by Czech
Television showed on Saturday.
The poll, released immediately after polling stations
closed, showed the right-wing Civic Democrats at 20 percent of
the vote, and they could easily form a coalition with other
centre-right parties, which fared better than expected.
"If the results are like this, it would be a shock to the
political scene. It would be a big victory for the right and a
defeat for the left, mainly the Social Democrats," political
analyst Milan Znoj said.
The poll also gave 20 percent to the left-wing Social
Democrats, possibly quashing the fears of many Czechs that they
would form a government backed by the Communists, who have not
had any share of power since their totalitarian rule ended in
the 1989 Velvet Revolution.
Social Democrats said it was too early to call, as left-wing
voters may have declined to disclose their choice to pollsters.
"If the numbers were valid than it is not particularly
cheerful but at the moment we must wait for the real numbers,"
Vice-Chairman Bohuslav Sobotka said.
RESULTS
The actual results, which may swing the overall picture due
to the margin of error in exit polls observed in past elections,
were expected to come in over the course of Saturday afternoon.
Czech voters have been split between leftist promises to
ward off economic crisis and right-wing warnings that such
policies would lead to bankruptcy. Analysts feared a close or
inconclusive result could lead to months of negotiations and the
formation of a weak cabinet unable to launch reforms.
Social Democrats have been backed by mostly older and less
well off voters among the 10.5 million Czechs, while right-wing
parties promising budget cuts and pension reform have a power
base among younger and wealthier voters.
Drawn-out coalition talks could rattle investors who want a
decisive government to shepherd a nascent recovery in the NATO
member state after its economy fell 4.1 percent last year.
A main concern is whether officials can rein in a budget
deficit that hit 5.9 percent of annual output last year and
enact changes to pension, healthcare and welfare systems that
have changed little in the 21 years since the fall of Communism.
The exit poll showed potential Civic Democrat allies, the
conservative TOP09 winning 17 percent, the centrist Public
Affairs with 11 percent and the centrist Christian Democrats at
5 percent, right on the threshold for winning seats.
"It is good the right wing scored well, we did not expect
that due to all of the screw ups they have made," said Jiri
Rotrekl, a 50-year-old agriculture engineer who voted for the
Civic Democrats.
Analysts say right-wing warnings of bankruptcy may be
overblown because public debt of 35 percent of gross domestic
product is half the EU average.
But they say an ageing population -- retirees are expected
to outnumber workers by 2050 -- will create large deficits in
the pay-as-you-go pension system.
The Civic Democrats have proposed private pension accounts,
while the Social Democrats say no change is needed for now.
Interim Prime Minister Jan Fischer, who took power after a
Civic Democrat government collapsed a year ago, has promised to
hand over budget options to whichever government emerges from
the election and subsequent talks.
It would ensure either side can cut the deficit to the
EU-prescribed level of 3 percent of GDP by the Civic Democrats
target of 2012 or a year later for the Social Democrats, with
market watchers preferring the rightist party's scenario.
