PRAGUE, July 9 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output rose 16.9
percent year-on-year in May, above analyst forecasts, data
showed on Friday, after 10.9 percent growth the previous month.
Working day-adjusted data showed a year-on-year rise of 11.3
percent. Seasonally adjusted output rose 0.1 percent
month-on-month.
The annual growth was mainly due to an increase in the
production of cars and metal products, the data showed.
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> firmed briefly after the data but
then returned to near opening levels of 25.385 per euro.
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KEY POINTS:
(y/y change in pct) May April May forecast
Industrial output 16.9 10.9 15.0
Industrial sales 17.3 9.7 n/a
(Full table of data............................[])
DETAILS:
- Overall new orders rose 27.2 percent year-on-year. Orders from
abroad rose by the same amount.
- The growth in orders was thanks to a 48.5 percent rise in the
sector of electronics, computers and optical devices.
- Orders in the vehicle-making sector rose by 13.5 percent.
- Construction output, measured by a separate index, rose 0.5
percent year-on-year in May.
COMMENTS
JAROMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"As indicated by strong exports, published earlier this
week, Czech industrial output also reported robust growth for
May, stronger than expected by the market."
"Furthermore, the May report shows a strong increase in new
orders, both from abroad and from the domestic side."
"We have strong output, strong orders, strong exports, and
also business sentiment indicators are at pretty strong levels
in the case of industry, which indicates a very nice pace of
growth of activity in industry should not deteriorate
significantly any time soon."
"The base effect and the expected slowdown of growth in the
euro zone will result in slower annual growth of industrial
output in the second half of the year."
"But a recovery observed this spring is certainly stronger
than expected and business sentiment indicators are not gloomy
at the moment at all."
"Good news for the crown, of course. That said, while
export-oriented side of Czech economy is a clear success at the
moment, recovery in domestic demand will be only gradual."
HELENA HORSKA, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, RAIFFEISENBANK
"The data did not disappoint but it did not surprise too
much either. Industry will rise by several percentage points
this year thanks to foreign orders."
"But the pace will not reach the level from 2004-2007, when
the growth was propped up by big investment in industry and the
EU entry."
"We expect a slowdown in industry growth at the end of the
year, due to a higher comparative base and fewer new orders."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The Czech data perfectly fits in the picture indicated by
yesterday's German industry data, and the French data this
morning."
"It shows that European economies including, the Czechs,
further accelerated in the second quarter thanks to relaxed
monetary policy."
"That the industry data would be positive was indicated in
the foreign trade data last week, which showed steep growth in
both exports and imports."
"This will also help second quarter GDP data."
"But the second half of the year is threatened by fiscal
austerity and high risk premiums."
BACKGROUND:
- May foreign trade figures......................[]
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LINKS:
- For further details on May output and sales numbers and past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-pru
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; editing by Michael Winfrey)
