PRAGUE, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade balance
posted a narrower-than-expected 3.59 billion crown ($203.7
million) surplus in August, data showed on Friday.
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KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK) Aug July Aug fcast
balance 3.59 7.24 4.0
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports -8.1 3.2 n/a
imports -10.1 -0.9 n/a
(For full table of trade data, click on........[])
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
rose 0.3 percent in August from July, while imports dipped 6.8
percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports and imports rose 5.4 percent and 3.2
percent year-on-year in August, outpacing the dynamics in
crowns, thanks to the firming of the domestic currency.
- Export in trade with vehicles and machinery dipped by 7.7
percent year-on-year, and imports dipped by 15.4 percent
year-on-year.
COMMENTARY:
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
The trade surplus is not as robust as we had expected."
"The trade surplus is widening year-on-year as improvement in
the balance of trade with machinery and transport equipment
continues.
"At the same time, however, the very weak results of both
imports and exports (notwithstanding negative calendar effects
in case of August) suggest that overall activity in the Czech
economy has been cooling as well."
"Such observation, which leads to conclusion that Czech
economic growth is to decelerate further in months to come, is
in line with signals sent by PMI manufacturing survey earlier
this week."
"It is obvious that exports will gradually feel the negative
impact of weaker growth in major export destinations and of the
previous firming of the Czech crown."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The data confirms that the euro zone is slowing and that we
are not isolated in the middle of Europe."
"The euro zone slowdown will impact the Czech Republic.
"The data that I have seen in the past weeks, whether from
the United States or the euro zone are worsening, so this is not
yet a final state and the balance will see a further worsening.
"I think this shows rates could go down faster than thought."
PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB
"The surplus is two times higher than I expected, therefore
it is positive. On the other side we can see a fall in exports
that is influenced by the strong crown. Generally the result is
positive but I'm not so optimistic on the development by the end
of the year because of the slowdown in EU countries."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT
"The dynamics is weak which shows a drop in both domestic
and foreign demand."
"The decline in dynamics is equal on both export and import
sides so the balance remains little changed."
"For the third quarter this means a decline in investments."
"From the monetary point of view, it is an indirect signal
of falling demand, which could lead to relaxing monetary
conditions but for now I see a neutral impact until we get more
data."
MARKET REACTION:
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> shows no instant reaction, trading
at 24.83 against the euro by 0712 GMT compared to 24.82 before
the data.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak July trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision []
[] []
- For further details on August foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; Editing by Jan Lopatka)
