* Czech q/q GDP lags fcast, but revisions boost yr/yr growth
* Recession worsens in Bulgaria in Q3-flash estimate
* Romanian GDP -7.1 pct y/y, less than expected fall
* Growth challenges in 2010 as support schemes wind down
(Adds Bulgarian C/A data, analyst comments)
By Michael Winfrey
PRAGUE, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Some economies in the EU's east
showed signs of revival in the third quarter while some
faltered, with the Czechs and Slovaks growing versus a quarter
ago but Hungary and Bulgaria failing to pick up.
Analysts agree the worst is over for most of the bloc's
ex-communist states, which have suffered some of the sharpest
economic drops in the 27-member union since west European demand
for the cars and electronics they produce collapsed last year.
They said Friday's flash estimates could lead to upgrades to
some full-year growth forecasts, although the region may face a
pinch in 2010 -- between when effects of government stimulus and
car scrap schemes fade, and consumers open back up their
wallets.
"While the Czech and Romanian numbers in general were
uplifting, the Hungarian and Bulgarian numbers were relatively
dismal," wrote Lars Christensen of Danske Bank in a note.
"The overall conclusion... is that the recovery in the CEE
economies is still quite weak and for some countries one could
even argue that the recovery has barely started."
Export-dependent Slovakia showed the best quarter-on-quarter
growth of 1.6 percent, for an annual result of minus 4.9
percent. []
The Czech Republic grew 0.8 percent over the previous three
months, slower than expectations of 1.0 percent. But that was
offset by revisions which brought the year-on-year drop to 4.1
percent, well below the 4.8 percent forecast. []
The quarterly growth was for the second period in a row for
both countries.
Neil Shearing of Capital Economics said both countries had
benefited from west European cash-for-clunker car scrap schemes.
He added: "Given that these schemes are beginning to expire,
and to the extent that they have just brought demand forward,
this means that growth is likely to fade from Q4 onwards."
Romania also showed a smaller than expected contraction of
7.1 percent on an annual basis, versus a forecast of 9 percent.
[]
Analysts said it was welcome news for a country expected to
see the worst economic downturn in the EU outside of the Baltics
and one that is struggling with a protracted political stalemate
that has threatened a 20 billion euro rescue deal led from the
International Monetary Fund.
"The bottom line is that it's much better than estimates,
and now we can expect a -7 (percent) figure for the whole year,"
said Ionut Dumitru, Raiffeisen Bank in Bucharest. "We might see
mild quarter-on-quarter growth in the fourth quarter."
Unicredit said the figures confirmed continued interest rate
cuts in Hungary, and it said it favoured the Polish zloty over
the forint.
Central European currencies rose on the data [].
LAGGARDS
Friday's data came alongside slightly worse than expected
data from the euro zone, central and Eastern Europe's main
export market, showing the richer single currency bloc jumped
out of recession [].
The European Commission sees economic contractions in the
EU's emerging east ranging from a worst-case minus 18.1 percent
in Lithuania to growth of 1.2 percent in Poland, the only member
of the bloc to avoid shrinking this year.
Poland will release its GDP data on Nov. 30.
While the Czech stats office said the economy had clawed its
way back to the level last seen in the first quarter of 2007,
Hungary and Bulgaria fared worse and deepened their falls.
Bulgaria contracted an annual 5.8 percent, versus 4.9
percent in the second quarter. []
Analysts say Bulgaria has not yet passed the worst and have
forecast contraction of around 6 percent this year. The Balkan
country's new centre-right government forecast a 2 percent
decline in 2010 and the IMF puts the contraction at 2.5 percent.
Parallel data showed its current account deficit shrank in
the first nine months of the year, with crashing imports
outpacing a fall in exports. This is partly due to a collapse in
domestic demand which will weigh on growth prospects in the
medium term. []
Hungary's economy shrank by an annual 7.2 percent
<HUGDP=ECI> in the third quarter, outpacing market expectations
for a decline of 6.4 percent <HUGDP1>, the Central Statistics
Office said on Friday.
"We expect the real economy to have bottomed out back in Q2,
although the recovery from the bottom is obviously going to
remain extremely slow," said Gyorgy Barta, analyst at CIB Bank.
[]
(Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Editing by Toby Chopra)
