PRAGUE, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Czech foreign trade posted a 17.76
billion crown ($1.01 billion) surplus in September, bigger than
analyst forecasts in a Reuters poll, data showed on Friday.
Exports and imports fell at a double-digit pace, as for most
of the year so far. Exports dropped by 13.9 percent, and imports
fell by 18 percent.
It is the highest September surplus on record, and the third
highest surplus since 1993.
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KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK) Sept Aug Sept fcast
balance 17.76 10.60 15.0
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports -13.9 -8.8 -12.3
imports -18.0 -14.2 -15.4
(For full table of trade data, click on........[])
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
fell 1.8 percent in September from August, while imports dipped
1.0 percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports fell 16.8 percent and imports plunged
20.8 percent year-on-year in September.
- The surplus was 7.3 billion crowns higher than in September
last year and the improvement was mainly due to a drop in the
mineral fuel trade deficit, which shrank by 4.3 billion.
- Exports of cars and machinery dropped by 12.4 percent
year-on-year. Imports in that sector fell 18.2 percent.
COMMENTARY:
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The foreign trade data looks good as it shows a record
surplus. But this is due to the drop in imports, which signals a
weak domestic demand both in investment and consumer sectors.
"This means nothing particularly good for the upcoming
months; it is possible that the recovery will be slower than
expected."
"The numbers for the moment mean no change for the monetary
policy direction but if the GDP (grew) slower in 2010 than
expected by the central bank, a further decline in interest
rates cannot be excluded."
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
"The surplus was higher than expected. There was no surprise
in the structure. The trends from previous months continue. The
biggest impact is from exports of cars because of fiscal
stimulus and cost-cutting schemes abroad. But this is only
temporary. It will be quite different in Q4."
"Economic activity is still low and it means lower imports.
The higher surplus is mainly because of lower imports."
"From the FX point of view ... it is possible the crown will
strengthen because it is an argument for a stronger crown in
combination with... the no (interest rate) cut yesterday."
MICHAL BROZKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE
"The foreign trade balance is developing in a favourable way
and the outlook is also favourable. Markets could see (the data)
as a moderately positive surprise and so positive news for the
Czech crown."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"The result is broadly in line with expectations though
imports are falling slightly deeper than forecast, which is
probably a sign of a weaker domestic demand. Exports develop in
line with general expectations."
MARKET REACTION:
The crown <EURCZK=> firmed to 25.745 from 25.810 following
the data.
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak Aug trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.......[]
[] [] []
- For further details on September foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; Editing by Victoria Main/Ruth
Pitchford)
