PRAGUE, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output fell
by 12.2 percent year-on-year in June, roughly in line with a
flash estimate of 12.3 percent released by the statistics office
on July 31, data showed on Tuesday.
The June figure decelerated from a 22.0 percent year-on-year
drop in May and represented seasonally adjusted month-on-month
growth of 2.9 percent.
It was the second instance of month-on-month growth this
year after a 0.6 percent rise in March.
The annual drop was mainly due to a decline in steel and
vehicles production. Analysts had expected a 17.0 percent annual
fall in June.
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KEY POINTS:
(y/y change in pct) June May June forecast
Industrial output -12.2 -22.0 -17.0
Industrial sales -14.2 -23.4 n/a
(Full table of data............................[])
DETAILS
- Seasonally adjusted output was up 2.9 percent month-on-month.
- Seasonally adjusted output was down 14.3 percent year-on-year.
- Overall new orders fell 13.0 percent year-on-year, and new
orders from abroad decreased 8.3 percent.
COMMENTARY:
MICHAL BROZKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK:
The good news is that foreign orders have stopped their
year-on-year fall from May's 27 percent to a mere 8.3 percent,
which is raising the chance for good results in the coming
months as well."
MARTIN LOBOTKA, ECONOMIST, CESKA SPORITELNA
"I would still be cautious... there is an improvement in all
segments but it's still just this one number... we've seen such
an improvement in France, in Germany... so I think this is
directly linked with what happened in the (European) Union in
May and June."
"I look at overall orders which fell year on year but orders
from abroad fell only 8 percent which gives some hope that in
the coming months industrial output won't fall so deep."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The most important information was the month-on-month
change which shows a 2.9 percent growth, which even historically
is a relatively strong number. I cannot remember that industry
would grow so quickly month on month in the past several years."
"It is the strongest indicator so far that there could be a
turnaround in the Czech economy and a rebound from the bottom."
"This is also confirmed by foreign trade data and now we
can't but wait for this indication to be confirmed in data in
coming months."
MIROSLAV FRAYER, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA
"The figures are quiet good as we saw the year-on-year
decline was weaker. Overall the figures indicate the worst is
behind us and we see the first signs of a possible slow
recovery."
"In the following months we will see recovery mainly in car
production because of the car scrapping subsidies. But by the
end of this year we can still see some weakening in this sector
because the subsidies can vanish."
MARKET REACTION:
Crown stable at 25.700 <EURCZK=> to the euro after the data.
BACKGROUND:
- June foreign trade figures......................[]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.......[]
[] [] [] []
LINKS:
- For further details on June output and sales numbers and past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-pru
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
