(Repeats story published on Feb 16)
* Komercni Banka <> Q4 earnings
* Due Wednesday, Feb. 18 at 0730 GMT
* Average net profit estimate at 3.31 bln crowns, up 8 pct
* Adjusted for one-off gain, net profit seen down 10 pct
By Jan Korselt
PRAGUE, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Czech Komercni Banka <>
is expected to show an 8 percent increase in fourth-quarter net
profit led by one-off gains, but will also begin to show the
impact of the country's sharp economic downturn, a Reuters poll
showed on Monday.
Adjusted for the one-offs, net profit at the only listed
Czech bank was estimated down 10 percent year-on-year,
reflecting worsening conditions in the open Czech economy, hurt
by slowing demand in its key export markets in western Europe.
Ten analysts gave an average estimate for net profit at 3.31
billion crowns, up from 3.06 million a year ago, boosted by a
combined 550 million crown gain from selling a stake in the
Prague Stock Exchange and the bank's investment arm IKS.
The profit estimates stood in an unusually wide range of
2.02 billion to 4.22 billion crowns.
The biggest Czech banks, well-capitalised and conservative
since they all went through state bailouts and privatisation
around the year 2000, have seen double-digit growth in profits
over past years and have been relatively resilient to the global
financial crisis.
With the sharp slowdown in the Czech economy, however, they
have begun to feel the impact of tighter lending, declining
interest rates, higher provisions on non-performing loans and
weak asset prices, analysts said.
"Komercni Banka, like other banks in the Czech Republic, is
entering a more complicated environment," said Marek Hatlapatka,
analyst at brokerage Cyrrus.
Analysts said the third biggest Czech bank, owned by
France's Societe Generale <>, is more exposed to
companies' performance than its peers, because lending to that
segment accounts for an above-average 60 percent of its loan
portfolio.
"Komercni Banka, with its corporate segment dominating the
lending book, will have to bear a high price for credit risk,"
said Jovan Sikimic, analyst at Raiffeisenbank, in a research
note.
"On the other hand, liquidity is no issue at all so far with
(loan/deposit ratio of) 70 percent, but with a huge bond
portfolio carrying not insignificant market risks from a weaker
koruna (crown) and interest rate cuts," Simikic said.
Czech GDP shrunk by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter from
the previous three months, preliminary data showed last week,
and some analysts said the figure could be a subject to a
further downward revision.
The economy, highly dependent on export of industrial goods,
is expected to contract this year.
The biggest Czech bank by total assets, Belgium's KBC's
<KBC.BR> CSOB, showed a 90 percent year-on-year drop in 2008 net
profit due to massive writedowns in its CDO portfolio, although
it posted a 22 percent increase on an adjusted basis.
Erste Group's <ERST.VI> Ceska Sporitelna will release
quarterly results on Feb. 27.
Komercni Banka traded at 6.3 times expected 2009 earnings on
Monday, according to Reuters data, while the average for main
European banking stocks <.FTE3X8350ECR> was at 7.4.
The stock has fallen 46 percent over the past year, while
Prague bourse's PX index <> has fallen 55 percent.
Following is a summary of analysts' estimates for the fourth
quarter of 2008 (figures in billions of crowns):
Q4/08 Average Median Q4/07 Range
Net interest income 5.48 5.40 4.98 5.28- 6.16
Net fees 2.07 2.06 2.03 1.98- 2.27
Total banking revenue 8.63 8.42 7.88 8.05-10.05
Operating profit 4.61 4.85 4.26 3.33- 5.22
Net profit 3.31 3.42 3.06 2.02- 4.22
The following banks and brokerages took part in the poll:
Atlantik FT, BH-Securities, Credit Suisse, Cyrrus, Erste
Bank/Ceska Sporitelna, JP Morgan Chase, KBC Securities/Patria
Finance, Raiffeisenbank, UniCredit Global Research, Wood & Co.
Net interest income and fees estimates were provided by nine
analysts, revenue by 8 and operating profit by 5 analysts.
($1=22.80 Czech Crown)
(Reporting by Jan Korselt; editing by Simon Jessop)
